I have a thickness of 3.5 inches as well, and I'm currently at 38.5 inches. I'm not buying sticks shorter than 6", but I have a 5" I can still just use. Mostly I do LWB's. Although it's possible my hair might compact more than yours since my hair is fine, and might be less resistant to manipulation.
Your bun size may not increase as quickly as you think it might. I wouldn't start buying bigger sticks now in anticipation - buy things you can and will actually use now since you don't know where you'll be in a year or two. .
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